England gave a spectacular performance with the bat secure a 31-run victory,which turned out to be the first loss of India in the tournament. England has now displaced Pakistan and has moved to number 4 in the standings. This win also ensured that Sri Lanka is out of the World Cup.
In the second match, the Australian registered a comprehensive 86-run win over New Zealand at Lord’s. Australia retained their position at the top and now have 14 points from 8 matches while New Zealand suffered their 2nd consecutive defeat in the tournament.
Sri Lanka join South Africa, West Indies, and Afghanistan - the four teams who have been eliminated from the semi-final race.
Pakistan and Bangladesh are still in with a chance though not a very probable one.
With Australia already qualified for the semi-finals, where do the remaining 5 teams stand in the competition?
Let us have a look at some of the scenarios.
India Might Still Finish in Top Two
India, in spite of the loss against England, have 5 wins from 7 matches (one washout) and are in a comfortable number two position with 11 points.
A win against Bangladesh or Sri Lanka will secure their semi-final
position. If they win both the matches they will finish with 15 points and be guaranteed a top two position.
New Zealand May Qualify Despite Losses
New Zealand are in 3rd position with 5 wins from 8 matches despite losing two matches in a row against Pakistan and Australia. They require to beat England to be certain of making the last 4. If England beat New Zealand, they end with 12 points. New Zealand remain on 11. One of
Pakistan or Bangladesh can equal them in points. However, the likelihood of them overtaking New Zealand on the points table is low as the New Zealand's net run rate is very high whereas Pakistan’s and Bangladesh’s is in the negative. Thus New Zealand should qualify even if they lose to England.
England has a 50 -50 chance
England’s fantastic win over India means that their clash with New Zealand is a potential Quarter-Final, for England.
If they win, they end with twelve points and secure a semi-final spot.
If they lose, they would then have to hope that Bangladesh beat Pakistan and in turn lose to India. But if Pakistan wins in this scenario, England would be knocked out of the tournament.
Can Pakistan do it like 1992?
Their wins against South Africa, New Zealand and Afghanistan mean that they are now at number 5 with 9 points from 8 matches. Pakistan have a very real chance of finishing with 11 points with just one game remaining against Bangladesh.
They will then hope that England do not win against New Zealand. In such a case, Pakistan qualify for the semi-finals. Even if England do beat New Zealand, then Pakistan would hope that it is by a big margin – which would ensure that New Zealand’s net run rate would drop. In such a scenario Pakistan will need to beat Bangladesh by a huge margin to qualify.
Very Difficult for Bangladesh
Bangladesh have secured 3 wins from 7 matches. They have two difficult matches to end their group stage tournament – with India and Pakistan. If they win both their remaining matches, Bangladesh will end with 11 points and then should hope that England are beaten by New Zealand.
In such a case Bangladesh will qualify for the semi-finals.
Sri Lanka Ousted and the Bottom Three
England’s win has made it clear that Sri Lanka cannot qualify for the semi-finals and their World Cup campaign has ended. They can reach a maximum of 10 points but with 4 wins (England, the number four team already has 10 points with 5 wins; andIndia, Australia and New Zealand all have more than 10 points).
South Africa got a win against Sri Lanka at Chester-le-Street on 28 June after their World Cup 2019 campaign came to an end (with their loss against Pakistan). They find themselves at number 8 in the points table with 5 losses from 8 matches.
West Indies have lost 5 of their 7 matches after their opening-match win against Pakistan. They have also been eliminated from the tournament.
Afghanistan have lost 8 out of 8 and have already been eliminated from the World Cup Tournament.